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“The time for monetary stimulus is over” by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
The time for monetary stimulus is over! At least for now. It won’t repair disrupted deliver chains. At the ECB press conference, it was clearly stated that a synchronized fiscal stimulus is needed. In the US the president tries to cut taxes on wages, but in the parliament he gets stopped and most believe that this won’t be…
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“Fed’s urgent decision to cut rates by 50 basis point” by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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“Stock indices trade ahead of their fundamentals” by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
Stock indices trade ahead of their fundamentals. The distance between the 200-day average is in most cases lager than 10%. It is high time that we see a correction or at least a consolidation. But after a zero growth of US earnings in 2019, analysts expect a modest pick up in 2020. Economic indicators do confirm this scenario.…
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Equity Risk Indicator is in Exuberant Territory
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Make or break, that is the question
S&P 500 is just below its all-time high. Most strategist and chartist are positioning themselves for a year end rally. A break out might happen if a deal with China will be singed. Or some large caps might surprise with Q3 earnings. Fundamentally, the latest US Markit PMI data were again positively surprising. Based on the…
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A record of USD 13 trillion bonds are yielding negative, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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Mind the Gap! By Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
Mind the Gap! By Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel Mind the gap! The S&P 500 has after the ECB and FED announcements open a gap. This is quite common in Europe but seems a rare phenomenon in the US. Normally such gap is closed in the future, i.e. the index must fall below the starting level.…
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The most hated rally is alive… By Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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ECB does not rule out further QE and rate cuts! By by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
ECB does not rule out further QE and rate cuts! By by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel 10 year bund yield dropped to -0.305% Netherlands 10year yield at -0.15% and Switzerland at -0.55%. But also US 10y fell by 5bps and stands at around 2.04% “Further cuts in policy interest rates and mitigating measures to contain any side effects…
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ECB announces more rate cuts and QE, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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Climbing the wall of worry continues, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
Climbing the wall of worry continues, by Blackfort CIO Andreas Bickel 3-rate cuts? Climbing the wall of worry continues, but the Fed cannot deliver what the market participants expect. This week the ECB meets in Sintra, the bank of Japan, the bank of England and the Fed will all set their monetary policy. The Fed is…