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Tapering means a touch less stimulus and not tightening
Blackfort Insights 05.11.2021 The fed committee has decided to start with the tapering. In November 15 billion dollars less bond purchase and another 15 billion in December. After that the reduction will be data dependent. However, the expectation is that until the end of June 2022 the program might be terminated. Ray Dalio, co-CIO of Bridgewater expects that…
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FOMO – S&P 500 and CSI 300 have seen both a rally into the closing
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When have we observed a drop of more than 5% in the S&P 500?
Blackfort Insights 12.08.2021 The answer is – last year in September and October. Will history repeat this year? As figure 4 shows it would be a normal reaction to see some pullbacks during the 2nd half of August. But we do see a lot of complacency around us. The CNBC fear and greed index is still in the…
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After the storm & before the next leg up?
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US Core CPI surges to 5%, treasury bonds rally and 10-year yield drops below 1.45%
Blackfort Insights 11.06.2021 Yesterday was the big ECB day, but Bloomberg TV concentrated on the US core CPI data which were released at the same time with the ECB press conference. The ECB basically confirmed that they will not taper their bond purchase programs and announced that they increase the Eurozone GDP forecast and expect inflation to be…
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Biden’s announcement and US cyclical stocks rally
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US and China tech stocks before a rebound?
Blackfort Insights 19.05.2021 US and China tech stocks before a rebound? In global equity markets we do see a continuation of the sector rotation. But as US and Asian tech stocks have both reached their lower trading range, we would expect that these stocks will mean revert. Most stocks in the FANG+ index have shown strong sales and…
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Double US taxes and equity market seloff
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US economy is bouncing back
Blackfort Insights 16.04.2021 Phili (Philadelphia) Fed at 18 months high and retail sales up almost 10%. The fiscal paycheck has reached the US economy. US consumers are back on track: they do what they like the most – they go out and consume. The latest retail sales figures rose 9.8% month over month. The service sector has…
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Fed Chair Powell pushed markets into the green
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Lockdown in Europe – but German IFO lead Indicators are on multiple years high
Blackfort Insights 29.03.2021 Lockdown in Europe – but German IFO lead Indicators are on multiple years high What a surprise: while Germany had its disastrous easter slow down announcement we had two press releases from the German IFO institute which stood in a stark contrast with the normal news flow. First, the business climate indicator rose to…