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Market Watch December 2022
Outlook 2023: Central banks might reach their terminal rate in H1, but no cuts are in sight The latest rate-policy-outlook from the Fed, the SNB and the BOE were all saying we keep rising and in inflation will be sticky. But the hawkish surprise was the ECB. Finally, they admitted the obvious. Not only will inflation stay at…
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Market Watch November 2022
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Market Watch October 2022
Macro Update: Core inflation in the US and Eurozone will trigger sharp rate hikes The latest rise of headline CPI data to above 10% in the UK and to 9.9% in the Eurozone were in line with expectations. But like in the US, we do see in Europe a surge of core CPI where food and energy are…
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Market Watch September 2022
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Bi-Weekly August 2022
Macro Update: The US Service sector slows down significantly in August The US economy is facing more headwinds during the last weeks. The service sector has pushed the whole economy into a significant slowdown. Technically we can argue that after two quarters with negative US GDP growth rates during 1H 2022 we might be already in recession. However,…
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Bi-Weekly. July 2022 I
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Bi-Weekly. March 2022 I
Bi-Weekly. March 2022 I Macro Update: Spikes in commodity prices might push US into recession in H2 2022 The US has little trade interaction with the Russian Federation, but they face now a severe risk of falling into a recession. On one hand commodity shocks coincident with recessions but on the other hand it might be the Fed…
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Bi-Weekly. February 2022 II
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Bi-Weekly. February 2022 I
Bi-Weekly. February 2021 I Macro Update: Strong US job data gives the Fed more room to tackle inflation faster Last weeks we were surprised by the US job data. In January 467’000 jobs were created, while December jobs creation statistic was adjusted to 511’000 new places. Although this is now already history it has an impact on…
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Bi-Weekly. Blackfort. January 2022 (I)
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Outlook 2022. Blackfort.
Blackfort’s investment investment outlook for 2022 Global markets in 2021: A mixed bag The 2021 was a complicated year for both equities and bonds. While developed equities performed extremely well, with the US markets up around 27% again more leading the peg, on the flip side we had Hang Seng which lost 13% just to be followed by…