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Market Watch February 2024
Mixed economic signals but Sentix Indicators keep on rising The macro outlook for the US appears bright if we base our analysis on the projected EPS growth of the largest US companies. However, it seems rather bleak when consulting most US macroeconomists. Additionally, the outlook appears somewhat mixed when considering leading indicators. Sentix and PMI data continue to…
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2023 Year End Market Watch
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Market Watch December 2023
Headline inflation is falling faster than expected. Markets expect now at 4-5 rate cuts for 2024. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book indicates some softening in the US economy, prompting market participants to anticipate additional rate cuts by the Fed and ECB in 2024. Initially, 3-4 rate cuts were priced in, but there is now a shift towards expecting…
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Market Watch November 2023
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Market Watch October 2023
Soft landing: US GDP might grow 1.8% for the entire 2023 The Federal Reserve has caught the markets off guard, not only with a positive economic outlook but also by signaling that there will be no interest rate cuts before September 2024. Additionally, they have also scaled back their expectations for the number of rate cuts in 2025.…
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Market Watch September 2023
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Market Watch August 2023
US GDP surprisingly grew at a rate of 2.4 The latest GDP data for the US surprised with a growth rate of 2.4%, prompting optimistic remarks from Fed chair Powell about the economy’s resilience and the potential to avoid a recession. However, he also mentioned that depending on the data post a pause in September, additional rate hikes…
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Market Watch July 2023
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Market Watch December 2022
Outlook 2023: Central banks might reach their terminal rate in H1, but no cuts are in sight The latest rate-policy-outlook from the Fed, the SNB and the BOE were all saying we keep rising and in inflation will be sticky. But the hawkish surprise was the ECB. Finally, they admitted the obvious. Not only will inflation stay at…
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Market Watch November 2022
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Market Watch October 2022
Macro Update: Core inflation in the US and Eurozone will trigger sharp rate hikes The latest rise of headline CPI data to above 10% in the UK and to 9.9% in the Eurozone were in line with expectations. But like in the US, we do see in Europe a surge of core CPI where food and energy are…