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Market Watch. July 2020 II

Market Watch. July 2020 II

August 5, 2020

Market Watch. July 2020 II Balance sheet recession must be fought with fiscal stimulus We are still living in a world of falling rates and extremely low government bond yields. Traditional...

Earnings might push the S&P 500 above its previous high

Earnings might push the S&P 500 above its previous high

August 5, 2020

This week around 25% of all in the S&P 500 listed companies will report earnings. Estimates are all over the place, but like this morning Pepsi, companies will on average beat the low estimates....

Market Watch. July 2020 I

Market Watch. July 2020 I

August 5, 2020

Market Watch. July 2020 I Leading indicators surprise with a strong rebound The latest PMI data shows further improvement. Economists stick to their negative outlook while markets keep rising. We...

New Reality after COVID-19

New Reality after COVID-19

August 5, 2020

On the 15th of June 2020 CIO of Blackfort Capital Dr. Andreas Bickel together with CFA Russia participated in the discussion of Fed's decisions, compared retail and professional investors and...

Market Watch. June 2020 II

Market Watch. June 2020 II

August 5, 2020

Market Watch. June 2020 II Most Fund Managers expect a double dip recession The US government yield curve is steepening. Some analysts claim that this indicates a recession. We would however...

The Fed – A market Timer

The Fed – A market Timer

August 5, 2020

The Dow Jones was yesterday 1’000 points in the red before the Fed announced they will start buying individual bonds. Also, the recent announcement of the buying of IG bonds and high yield ETFs was...

Waiting for the Fed – Fear of missing out leads to euphoria

Waiting for the Fed – Fear of missing out leads to euphoria

August 5, 2020

The Nasdaq Composite is above 10’000 for the first time in history, meanwhile the OECD has just published a revised down forecast for the global economy. Fig. 1: Nasdaq Composite is at all-time...

Market Watch. June 2020 I

Market Watch. June 2020 I

August 5, 2020

Market Watch. June 2020 I Most Economists have revised its GDP forecasts down The latest PMI data was slightly better than the previous ones. Except for China all PMIs are below the growth area....

S&P 500 continues to trade above its 200-day average / The breakout was driven by the non FAANG stocks

S&P 500 continues to trade above its 200-day average / The breakout was driven by the non FAANG stocks

August 5, 2020

In our last publication we were reckoning that a possible break out above the 200-day average might occur. This is against the negative macro news flow. The rally is driven by stimulus. The latest...

S&P 500 tries to break out of its trading range – Meanwhile most fund managers stay on the sideline

S&P 500 tries to break out of its trading range – Meanwhile most fund managers stay on the sideline

August 5, 2020

In the last 6 weeks the US markets have traded in a sideways channel after the strong recovery rally. Since our last publication we have reached the upper end of the trading range. We do feel...

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