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Lockdown in Europe – but German IFO lead Indicators are on multiple years high
Blackfort Insights 29.03.2021 Lockdown in Europe – but German IFO lead Indicators are on multiple years high What a surprise: while Germany had its disastrous easter slow down announcement we had two press releases from the German IFO institute which stood in a stark contrast with the normal news flow. First, the business climate indicator rose to…
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The Fed is now behind the curve – US equity markets applause
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Bi-Weekly. March 2021 I
Bi-Weekly. March 2021 I Macro Update: Very strong PMI data across the globe New PMI data has been released. This time we got a real positive surprise. Export oriented countries like Germany, Taiwan or Switzerland were reporting figures around 60 (acceleration area). Netherlands, France and even Italy were above 55. Eurozone industrial PMI was reported just a touch…
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A minor pullback – is it already over?
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Bi-Weekly. February 2021 II
Bi-Weekly. February 2021 II Macro Update: Government bond yields are rising Over the last weeks the expected amount of the next US fiscal stimulus packages has constantly increased. This was mirrored by a rise of US treasury yields. The 10y yield has risen since the beginning of the year from 0.92% to above 1.3%. There is an ongoing…
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To correct or not to correct, that is the question
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Bi-Weekly. February 2021 I
Bi-Weekly. February 2021 I Macro Update: Solid macro indicators and strong Q4 data in the US and China The strong Q4 macro data from China was followed by the positive indicators from the US. In Q4 US GDP grew by 4% and the economy decreased by 2.5% in 2020. This data was derived from the macro indicators and…
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Irrational Exuberance
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Bi-Weekly. January 2021 I
Bi-Weekly. January 2021 I China’s latest data release conforms its strong economic recovery Over the weekend China released a set of economic data. Unsurprisingly, based on leading indicators, its GDP grew in 2020 by 2.3%. Forth quarter GDP was stronger than consensus and the third quarter figure was revised up. This should come with little surprise, as the…
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Signs of euphoria – But maybe we will only see a pullback in February
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Bi-Weekly. December 2020 II
Bi-Weekly. December 2020 II Q3 GDP data in China and in the US have surprised to the upside The US parliaments have finally agreed on a fiscal stimulus package of around 4% of US GDP. This USD 900 bn stimulus is the 2nd largest in history. However, President Trump asked for a substantial increase of paychecks. He has…
